#2984 - Potential Section A Questions Lt With Answers - Chinese Economic History Since 1850

Relatively balanced at first

China showed willingness at the beginning, but gun boat diplomacy was a major factor

Compradors and middlemen became involved in trade

Status quo essentially unchallenged until Japan came along (Duus et al., 1989)

Japan wanted treaty port status since Meiji restoration

• Acquired it with the Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895

Treaty of Shimonoseki gave more navigation rights on Yangtze and Woosung and manufacturing rights Altered the status quo Foreigners became more prominent Xenophobia and Nationalism

When they attempted to gain more control of Manchuria this led to boycotts and strikes in 1920s

• Failure for Paris Peace Conference to acknowledge of conclude on the Manchuria problem

However, by this time Britain (1928) was willing to concede tariff autonomy

• Lord Cadogan (1935) – Trade important but not at risk of security

Japanese territorial ambitions led to the collapse of the treaty port system

Success of Meiji reforms Qing Confucian reforms looked to Japan for inspiration

Reformist community developed in Japan Received protection from Japan

Abolition of civil service examinations Overseas study important for government roles

Japanese proximity meant many students went to Japan Large student movement in the early 1900s (Jansen, 1980)

Initial student activism faced at foreign imperialism not the Qing

• But instability meant reformists moved focus towards Qing Qing became vigilant of students in Tokyo (Woo, 1980)

After the Hundred Days, Japan tried to intermediate between Qing and reformists, but Japan then seen to be harbouring reformists

Four main objectives during early Mao period (Maddison, 1998; Naughton, 1991)

1) Target landlords, bourgeoisie and foreign interests

• Reforms to property rights

• Land reform (1950-1952) Confiscate land and redistribution Agricultural growth and improving living standards

2) Increase in state revenues finance admin mechanisms, military expansion and capital accumulation

3) Replace market economy with regulatory devices and state planning

• First five year plan 3.5% growth in grain production

• Great Leap Forward (1958-1960) Mass mobilization, rapid expansion, collectivization state planning apparatus and control over agricultural resources

4) Foreign trade eliminated Goal of self-sufficiency

• Worried of reliance on foreign imports

• Danger of military intervention from West US encroaching on China in Korea, Vietnam Japanese in Burma, Laos etc. (Moise, 1986)

• Aided by trade embargoes by European countries until 1957 and US until 1971

Between 1953 and 1978 – Annual output grew 6% on average

• First FYP contributed towards this

  • Construction of 694 industrial projects Massive increase in investment

  • Exceed original target by 17% (Hsu, 2000)

  • But on the back of dramatic laws of prewar China, years of civil war etc. Context important!

• Success not consistent throughout the period (Eckstein, 1973)

Between 1950 and 1980s – Population grew from 560m to 1bn

• Increasing living standards

• CCP not initially worried by population growth (Marxist view as asset)

• 1950s small scale efforts to control campaigns on virtue of late marriage etc. Little success

• 1970s leadership expressed economic growth as an outcome of population control

• One child policy officially launched by 1979

Labour productivity increased too

• Intensified use advanced agricultural techniques, fertilisers, irrigation etc. But focus on quantity not quality Not as good as could have been

• Mass mobilization of best rural workers to industrial centres increased urban productivity at expense of rural

Focus on confiscation and redistribution of land

Crucial in gaining mass support

Coincided with agricultural growth and significant improvements in living standards

Peasants encouraged to form mutual aid teams

• Worked well incentives remained improved output because efficient pooling of resources

Land reform was not new

• Had been taking place since 1930s by CCP in CCP controlled areas (Moise, 1986)

Collectivisation was an agricultural programme between 1952 and 1957

Similar aims to USSR, but nowhere near the velocity or scale

Deemed a crucial part of the first FYP

Aimed at increasing output, facilitating control over rural production and resource extraction (Yang, 1996)

Mutual aid teams with temporary sharing of labour, tools and draft animal Retained ownership over land

1954 increasingly organized into agricultural producers’ cooperatives which permanently pooled labour, tools and animals Still retained ownership

1956 increasingly into advanced producers’ cooperatives Income no longer on share of land, now on labour contribution

Growth of 3.5% per year mainly due to intensification of techniques

Lower incentives in the advanced cooperatives but peasants had no choice as credit cooperatives, supply and demand cooperatives restricted private economic opportunities

Mao constantly changed the speed of collectivization, reacting to peasant response Peasants responded positively to 3 fix policy Led Mao to once again intensify the programme

By the end of 1957, 97% of peasant households organized in collectives

Began after the Third Plenum in 1958 – 1960

Mass mobilization, rapid expansion, intensification of cooperative farms into people’s communes (Yang, 1996)

“Mao got carried away” (Deng, 1980)

• Higher production goals Very unrealistic Mao believed productivity and morale would boost production, not investment or fertilisers

  • Lead to over-zealous provincial leaders pressure on statistics bureaus Higher targets as result of forecasts Commune mess halls to supply free food Exhausted by spring of 1959

Siphoning off of valuable labour from the rural economy

• Shortage of labour during the harvest of 1958

  • 38 million mobilized in 1957 Often the best workers

Worst famine in history mortality of 16.5 to 30 million

Bad weather hypothesis

• Official explanation

• Certainly a contributed factor

• But wouldn’t have resulted in such a serious reduction in aggregate grain output (Yang, 1996)

Bad policy and institutions hypothesis (Kung, 2011)

• Impatient central planners Mass mobilization Siphoned off best workers 38 million in 1957

• Over zealous provincial leaders exaggerated forecasts

• People’s communes Commune mess halls Wasted food

Exit rights hypothesis (Lin, 1990)

• Right of withdrawal key to sustaining the inbuilt supervision system Shirkers could be evicted

• Without right to withdrawal, reduced incentive for productivity

• Kung (1993) criticizes the exit rights hypothesis Local cadres use of force, higher taxes, withheld clothes coupons etc. exit costs were high anyway

4 key areas (Bramall, 2000)

Irrigation

• Well developed under Song Limited/neglected under late Qing and Republican era

• Expansion during Mao period Financed by central govt., mobilization of labour, banks

• But quantity vs. quality

• Argument whether it dampened or increased effects of climate in late 1970s

• Evidence of successful projects e.g. Guangdong (1962-1964) Increased rice production

Industrial capital

• Emphasis on heavy industry Grew 2x as fast as light industry

• Shift from food and textiles Machinery, metals and chemicals

• Long term planning flexible to China’s industrial needs

  • Different emphasis in each of the 5 year plans

• Shift in energy use from coal to oil

• Increased production of consumer goods e.g. bicycles and sewing machines

• Production of fertilisers for agriculture

Infrastructure

• Primitive prior to 1949

  • Poor coverage of railways, road systems

• Expansion of railway Some important regions still unconnected But some improvement

• New infrastructure provided some of foundations for economic growth

Social capital

• Late Qing and Republican era had low literacy rates esp. among rural and females

  • Growth post 1978 probably not due to generation educated before 1949

• Criticism of Mao’s approach to education

• Universities closed during Cultural Revolution Limited supply of teachers Purged intelligentsia

• Upward trend in literacy rate Secondary education increased in rural areas

• Remains behind many developed countries But good improvements

China’s approach to reform has been gradual

Eastern European and USSR big-bang approach Severe depression Hierarchy of rich...