#3025 - Week 3 Reading Baten Et Al. - Chinese Economic History Since 1850

Rapid accumulation of physical and human capital led to East Asia catch-up after WWII

Lack of systematic and comparable data for China

Decline in living standards and human capital after mid 19^th century

• Recovery at turn of the century

Data suggests that living standards were similar to backward parts of Europe in 18^th and 19^th century

• Confirming the traditional view

• Contrary to revisionism (Pomeranz 2000, Lee et al. 2002)

  • Claim Asian living standards on par with Europe in 18^th century

However, age heaping index (numerical abilities) data shows Chinese human capital was closer to North-Western Europe

Low living standards vs. high human capital

GDP per capita does not capture non-market income

• Important in developing economies

Attempts by Allen, Bassino, Ma, Moll-Murata and van Zanden (2007) attempt to use real wage to fill data for China in 18^th and 19^th centuries

• Focuses on wage histories of Canton, Beijing, and lower Yangzi

• Criticism: Focuses only on urban unskilled workers

  • Is this representative and comparable?

  • But it is probably the best we have available

Divergence in living standards of workers in urban centres of China from Netherlands and England in 18^th century

• However, places like Milan were at a similar level to China

Second divergence = Backward parts of Europe and Japan crept ahead of China and London increase it’s divergence

Gamble (1943) data spans entire 19^th Century

• Useful because it was a time of ‘economic dislocation’

  • E.g. Taiping Revolution

Important complementary measure of living standards (Fogel, Komlos et al.)

• Capture biological component of wealth

  • E.g. health, life expectancy, quality of nutrition

• Particularly sensitive to economic inequalities

However, must take care in interpreting this data

• Differences in intergenerational height transmission and nutritional habits which are not directly related to economic scarcities

Convergence of Chinese heights to the European and North American level more recently

Data taken by measuring migrants, prisoners and employees of government organizations in China

• But region of birth was mainly the south (particularly Guangdong)

• Therefore approximate trends on Southern China

Northern Europeans were taller and became even taller after the mid-1800s

Southern Chinese performed poorly in the East Asia context

Based on tendency of poorly educated people in the past to round their age

Better educated are more likely to report their exact age

Also called a Whipple index

Research confirms strong relationship between illiteracy and age heaping

• Particularly in less developed countries after 1950

Reflects numerical skills more than literacy skills

• Perhaps more important for technical, commercial and craftsmen

Extensive availability of age data

‘Chinese degree of age numeracy…among the highest in the world…in the nineteenth century’ – (Crayen and Baten 2008)

Author’s study confirms large and sustained decline in living standards and human capital during mid-19^th century

• Opium war and Taiping Rebellion

Similar declines seen in Ireland and Spain following their famines – Manzel 2008)

Likely that the rejuvenation of governmental bureaucracy during the Tong-Zhi restoration contributed to the drastic...